I mentioned on Tuesday that we could very well pull back for a few days before we see the expected bull surprise move to the upside. As we move down, I see us getting to 1050 minimum and possibly 1040 on the S&P. I can see possible weakness on Monday as a follow through maybe after an initial bounce up, but we came this far, so getting to 1050 minimum and maybe 1040 is very likely. As the market comes down, it is only going to add to the bearish stand that the market has set in motion. This looks like the perfect storm brewing. The extra time the market is taking, is a gift for those who want to prepare for something bigger. Well, that is how I see it all happening. If you disagree, that is OK with me.
I will point out the numbers I will be watching to confirm the move is underway. When I see a break of 1090 S&P futures, that should do it. The next important number to take out is just above that at 1096. When we see those two numbers broken to the upside, you are going to see the mother of short squeezes and general buying. I don’t know what the trigger will be but, I really believe it is going to take out that last high like no body’s business. Again, this is my own opinion on the matter and is not investment advise. I am just one guy with an opinion of where the market is going to go over the next several weeks. This is a very unpopular belief right now and I know that.
Last year I could see the market making this advance to where we are today and thought then, that this would be where the next big drop would come in at. That was then, March and April of 2009. Now that we have pushed the upper limits of this rally retracement, 1550 to 666 and back to upper middle range 1060 currently, but things have changed. If to many people take a one sided position, the market never likes to accommodate them so easily.
So, lets just let this market settle into this pullback, gain its footing, and see what it can do. The prove is always in the pudding and I like pudding.
Took today off, since yesterday was such a good day and have relatives visiting from out of town. We live in the a small mountain community in Northern California. The Marble Mountain Wilderness is basically in my back yard. Lots to do for the adventurous. Summer is going by so fast, hardly keep up with it.
We all need to rest and take breaks from trading, to help gain and keep perspective on everything. It is easy to get out of balance, especially when we are on a quest for greatness. The thing is, you can at times achieve more by stepping away from the ring, to get and keep a healthy perspective on your short term and long term goals.
I think it is healthy to be able to not trade at times and be OK with that. This business does have the ability to burn traders out, by over-trading and reaching for the upper limits of each possible day.
Self control is more than some nice word that sounds good when spoken here or there. Self control will make all the difference in the world to how long you stay alive to meet and reach your goals.
Most traders have desire and that is a good quality which can drive us to take action for the “pursuit of happiness”. Desire is good, but you will need more. For traders, self control while trading, will hold you back from jumping in to soon, before things come together. Self control while trading, will also help you from getting out to soon, when you have the perfect trending trade setup and move under way. Self control, is so important, it can not be overstated, or understated for that matter.
Over trading is another problem traders face when they loose control. Trading is something that we do and no one else can take the credit or blame for our success or defeat. The word “Self” says that this is in-fact true and the word control, would imply that you can handle it.
Is this the case for most day traders entering the market place each day? I don’t think so. For those who want to be apart of the very small percentage of profitable traders, you will need to have and find this control over your trading or you will just not last long in this venture.
We can exercise and find this control, by starting with our lives first. Some may not understand this, but every weakness we have as human beings will be exploited by the markets. The markets will ferrite out your personal weaknesses and try and bring you down. I am not making that up, its just the way it is. I have been at this a long time and know that to be true for me. I know I am not the only one, for sure. Human nature is such that this applies to everyone who enters the trading game.
This is where taking time off occasionally, especially in summer, to do those things that can help bring balance and perspective to the whole operation.
Being able to not trade, when you want too, is a way for me to exercise self control over my trading, especially when you did well for the week already. There are a lot of ways for me to do this as well and I am going to explore one more of them. Trading the early morning market open. That is a hard one for me. I usually stay up late and the open here come at 6:30 am. We will see how I do this coming week ?
Below, are a few stock charts showing there respective turning points in different time frames. Anyone with question or inquiries, don’t hesitate to email me, I am here for those who need it.
Have a good weekend.